Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here is the link to the site, to keep updated with it. (Bill is forecast to pass within 50nm of it)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.1 4.0
we may see ts ana born again
As long as its a fish spinner I say bring it on :D
But only if it doesnt hit anything...
who in their right mind would chase or ride out a CAT 5?
============
We would. We would be staged as close as humanly possible to be able to move in for SAR immediately.
I, however, believe Bill will turn and not be a threat to the US.
Link
: )
*looks at Raw T*
We may see Hurricane Ana
*eek*
WTNT32 KNHC 171731
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
200 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...POORLY ORGANIZED ANA MOVING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...45 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION...WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN
THE AREA SHORTLY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 67.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI
Hey Patrap,
I think we will be getting wet soon....LOL
Taco :0)
What is raw T????
Short Wave Image
The NOGAPS was keeping Bill between Bermuda and the east coast. This isn't a big change.
A few hundred miles
That number is suspect...
Wind and rain- as is normal for a typical Florida thunderstorm- just wear a raincoat and bring an umbrella.
I just saw it brings it closer to the Northeast. We'll see if the other models begin to shift. I just hope this isn't the start of a westward trend.
(~ 28.34 inHg) 463 meters
(~ 1,519 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 121° at 26 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 29.9 mph) 23.5°C
(~ 74.3°F) 12.0°C
(~ 53.6°F) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph)
Katrina and Andrew=175
Rita and Mitch=180
Gilbert and Wilma =185
-
Didn't check every year...just the ones I knew had strong winded canes. Someone said Wilma is strongest according to NHC...but that's based on lowest pressure...not highest winds. The question was about strongest winds...and she's second.
Thanks in advance for any help.
Just had a 5 minute burst of rain in Tulsa, OK...typical summer storm - windy, dark clouds hard rain that doesn't last long.
Also Bill looks very good right now. I think the HWRF is on something for Bill to turn out to be a category five at 190mph on the track it is forecasted to take. It is possible that once Bill's inner core is finalized that he could make a run at category five and ultimately fail to reach it that seems reasonable at this time.
1724 GMT
Latitude 17.6 N
Longitude 65.6 W
Moderate turbulence in clear air infrequent
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1476 feet (450 meters)
Flight level winds 130 degrees at 21 knots (24 mph)
Temperature 23 C Dewpoint 12 C
Surface winds 120 at 30 knots (34 mph)
Remarks: AF300 0202A ANA OB 02
If they can find a vortex, then it's still a TD...of course, looking at radar, that seems like a big if.
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
I know those ADT numbers are high, but not even a mention???
I live in Tampa and even a Cat 1 would be an issue for me. Interesting data.
Interesting facts about Wilma:
It was the first W named storm
Lowest recorded pressure of 882 millibars
Smallest known eye in the Atlantic-3 miles wide
Costliest hurricane in Mexico
You just did! LOL
am i seeing some pinks there at 45mph
The brass facts from the HH are coming in, why would they speculate?
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