Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I live in the Tampa Bay area, but I try to call them like I see them. I'm going off what the NHC is currently forecasting for ana. I don't know what the 5-day shear forecast is, but if ana holds together as a remnant low and gets into the gulf, there is plenty of energy in the water to spin her back up a bit before making a US landfall.
Well said!!
Nope. The heat energy is too spread out for a storm or two to reduce it significantly. Also, the GOM is still incredibly warm.
So I'm confused as to where HH is flying into. Has Ana dropped down and gaining energy?
Remember, those are normalized dollars. If you take the 1926 path and run it over Florida today, that's how much damage that storm would do....
Ok, img doesn't want to work, here's link.
I'm looking now. However, it doesn't seem to have broken records.... will advise.
Love your site.. I use it all of the time. I like the global wind fields gives me perspective.
Thanks for the great link. The one thing I notice right off the bat is how much bigger the wind field has gotten.
True. Bermudans also tend to be a bit more pragmantic about these events.
U go dude! I don't suppose people are, like battening up and stuff, are they?
Uhm, well ok.
17/1745 UTC 14.5N 46.1W T4.5/4.5 BILL -- Atlantic
I'd be extremely worried in Bermuda! Hope it misses them!
Finnaly got rid of some of that dry air etrapment... get ready for a real power boost now.
How are the NHC "proved" to be right? The UK Met Office track is headed for the east coast. Has that been proved to be wrong, yet? Bill is about 2,000 miles away. This trough has to build, get its timing right and be strong enough to suck Bill up. It may well happen and recurve Bill out to sea, but it seems to me that that's quite a lot of things that have to happen just right. Yet you say it's "proved"?
This is the Quikscat from aforementioned buoy.
It's all that freakin schoolin and studyin that those pro's have done which really makes it an unfair playing field.
Ok, purely for entertainment purposes and not a "wishcaster" or "doomcaster", doesn't that animation look like Bill is a long bat / sword rearing back and getting ready to take a swing at S. Fla. :-0
I live in Ft. Lauderdale. From what I understand of the Tampa Bay area, you are much more prone to major flooding if a large storm were to spproach. The surge would be catastrophic because of the topography. Am I correct? I hope Ana does not come your way. Not a funny situation at all as some may think!
Katrina was a cat 3 at landfall.
Disregard him I think.. i clicked "hide" the second I saw him saying people had prayed for an island hit.
lol or at the entire east coast of the USA actually!
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2009 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 17:40:52 N Lon : 67:08:45 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.2 4.0
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -62.3C Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
This is the methodology as explained to me at the past Governor's Hurricane Conference this past May in Ft. Lauderdale...
http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/docs/Pielkeetal2006a.pdf
Looks like bill is closing the northerly hole.
Dirtiest sounding post I've seen today.
I'm well aware of that...I only mentioned it went to Cat5
Thank you, I live in Bermuda and am very concerned.
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