Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:27 GMT dnia 18-październik-2009

Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.

Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

Pink Snow (CecileWNC)

The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!

The Snowy Poconos (robin57)

Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo

Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center (SoggyWaffles)

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1101. stormwatcherCI 11:47 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting homelesswanderer: Ok. Thank you. :) CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category 1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate) 1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH 2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb 2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb 3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb 3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb 4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS) 4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS) 5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS) 5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS) 6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS) 6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS) 7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS) 7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS) 8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS) Hope this helps. I bookmarked it for reference. Member Since: październik 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

1102. stormwatcherCI 11:48 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting stormpetrol: I see the NHC "appears " still not to be impressed with the Caribbean Blob. They might not be but I sure am. We have had almost 6" of rain. What a blessing. Member Since: październik 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

1103. homelesswanderer 11:50 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
The 06 GFS seems to keep it in the Caribbean and loses it around 240hrs best I can tell. That is a looong time in more or less the same place. That wouldn't be good either. Member Since: sierpień 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1104. jipmg 11:52 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting homelesswanderer: Wow! The Caribbean is baking. The CMC is trying to send this to you Storm. :( Hope not. How strong would a 988 low be? 988 translates to a CAT1 hurricane

1105. homelesswanderer 11:55 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category 1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate) 1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH 2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb 2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb 3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb 3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb 4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS) 4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS) 5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS) 5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS) 6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS) 6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS) 7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS) 7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS) 8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS) Hope this helps. I bookmarked it for reference. Thank you. I pasted that in a safe place. :) I never could figure those out. Member Since: sierpień 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1106. homelesswanderer 11:58 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting jipmg: 988 translates to a CAT1 hurricane Thank you. :) Member Since: sierpień 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1108. homelesswanderer 12:04 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
stormwatcherCI got banned??? Why what happened? I was just talking to him/her. :( Member Since: sierpień 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1109. homelesswanderer 12:06 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting StormW: I'm ready for it Stef. Oh Ok. Lol. I feel a little better knowing that's only showing a cat 1. Member Since: sierpień 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1110. amd 12:19 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
lowest pressure that I could find with the Caribbean blob is 1008 mb at San Andres, Colombia. Link However, area of maximum vorticity at 850 mb is a bit wsw of that island, and may be just offshore. Link Member Since: sierpień 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024

1112. nrtiwlnvragn 12:32 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Recon on their way to Rick, think it will take ~4 hours to get there. Member Since: wrzesień 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

1113. superpete 12:35 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting Weather456: BBL, Tropical Update Tropical depression may form later this week Thanks for the observations 456.As usual, a very clear synopsis on our area of interest here. Member Since: październik 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 498

1114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:45 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting leftovers: once this sw carib system breaks off from the cold front it should develop going to be a soaker not the time for a cancun trip right over the highest OHC of the atlantic Member Since: lipiec 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40467

1115. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:49 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting SykKid: Seasons over. at 11 59 59 pm nov 30 2009 Member Since: lipiec 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40467

1116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:56 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
waitin on the gom rtn flow Member Since: lipiec 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40467

1117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 13:01 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
wow iam a blog killer quiet in here this am Member Since: lipiec 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40467

1118. tornadofan 13:02 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
KOG - I think I just heard a pin drop. Member Since: kwiecień 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

1119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 13:07 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
may have Member Since: lipiec 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40467

1120. beell 13:08 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
it's so quiet you could here a mouse dropping... or something like that. Member Since: wrzesień 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12866

1121. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 13:09 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
anyway off to work bbl at lunch Member Since: lipiec 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40467

1122. tornadofan 13:15 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing? Member Since: kwiecień 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

1123. XL 13:17 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
I have to say I've been checking in during breaks from work and was starting to think there was a problem with the site as there was so little activity in the blog. Member Since: lipiec 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 91

1124. homelesswanderer 13:26 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting tornadofan: So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing? Looks like... BY WEDNESDAY...ADVECTING PACIFIC CLOUDS...FROM THE LANDFALLED HURRICANE RICK...WILL AUGMENT THE INCOMING GULF MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. Member Since: sierpień 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1125. Orcasystems 13:29 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Seismic Monitor AOI AOI Humor in Comments Member Since: październik 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1126. Orcasystems 13:33 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Member Since: październik 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1127. Grothar 13:38 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Morning everyone! Just thought I would drop in so that you all have something to read. Is is Monday morning blues; where is everone? Member Since: lipiec 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19515

1128. beell 13:38 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
1122. tornadofan 1:15 PM GMT on October 19, 2009 So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing? I think you and I have consensus on that, tf. A repeat of the last front maybe. Stalls along the coast and then as high pressure builds behind, a push farther offshore. Not looking to get as far and as fast to the south as the current front. The boundary entering the MDR near Bermuda and running to the SW over the Yucatan. Only a 1017mb surface high over the NE Gulf states by next weekend. Anyway a short term stall along the coast coincident with Rick Remains should bless us well. Member Since: wrzesień 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12866

1129. NewBdoBdo 13:40 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Good Morning all. Member Since: sierpień 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15

1130. BurnedAfterPosting 13:52 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
I see we have other forecast models onboard now

1131. jipmg 13:53 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: I see we have other forecast models onboard now link

1132. FLWeatherFreak91 13:54 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
GFS and CMC on board this morning with forming a low in the SW Caribbean. We'll have to see if the shear values drop enough in the coming week over the Gulf and Yucatan channel to allow a storm to come north. Member Since: grudzień 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

1133. BurnedAfterPosting 13:54 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting jipmg: link I just woke up and am going by what 456 said in his blog lol, brb

1134. jipmg 13:57 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: GFS and CMC on board this morning with forming a low in the SW Caribbean. We'll have to see if the shear values drop enough in the coming week over the Gulf and Yucatan channel to allow a storm to come north. Same thing that was said hours ago, lol

1135. AussieStorm 14:01 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Good evening one and all. Member Since: wrzesień 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13316

1136. FLWeatherFreak91 14:02 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting jipmg: Same thing that was said hours ago, lol Ok. That's fine. Read it again. Member Since: grudzień 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

1137. AussieStorm 14:04 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: I see we have other forecast models onboard now the more models that come on board the more this thing will develop Member Since: wrzesień 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13316

1138. stormsurge39 14:05 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
456 when is the wind shear to the N of this possible, TC in the days to come, suppossed to decrease?

1140. AwakeInMaryland 14:07 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Quoting Grothar: Morning everyone! Just thought I would drop in so that you all have something to read. Is is Monday morning blues; where is everone? Stayed up too late watching weather systems & blog -- did you get any sleep? (gulps coffee, head nods, even doggys are sleeping in here.) Member Since: sierpień 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

1142. weatherwatcher12 14:13 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
850mb Vorticity increasing near Nicaragua: Member Since: maj 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

1143. TampaSpin 14:13 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
Here is WindShear 3 days out! Click the graphic for a 4 day loop... Member Since: wrzesień 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1144. nrtiwlnvragn 14:14 GMT dnia 19-październik-2009
New Blog Member Since: wrzesień 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

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