Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan
June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.
U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.
Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.
I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.
Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz
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Charleston, SC NWS
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING OFF THE GA/FL COAST.
MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THE NAM IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS A CLOSED LOW IN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS AND
IT TAKES THE LOW WEST INTO THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
PERSIST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS WILL BE OVER INLAND SC WHERE BETTER
SUN IS EXPECTED...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
Ok.. I don't have as great an understanding of these types of development as compared to the fully tropical ones.
An ice core is a core sample that is typically removed from an ice sheet, most commonly from the polar ice caps of Antarctica, Greenland or from high mountain glaciers elsewhere. As the ice forms from the incremental build up of annual layers of snow, lower layers are older than upper, and an ice core contains ice formed over a range of years. The properties of the ice and the recrystallized inclusions within the ice can then be used to reconstruct a climatic record over the age range of the core, normally through isotopic analysis. This enables the reconstruction of local temperature records and the history of atmospheric composition.[1]
"Ice cores contain an abundance of climate information. Inclusions in the snow of each year remain in the ice, such as wind-blown dust, ash, bubbles of atmospheric gas and radioactive substances. The variety of climatic proxies is greater than in any other natural recorder of climate, such as tree rings or sediment layers. These include (proxies for) temperature, ocean volume, precipitation, chemistry and gas composition of the lower atmosphere, volcanic eruptions, solar variability, sea-surface productivity, desert extent and forest fires.
The length of the record depends on the depth of the ice core and varies from a few years up to 800 kyr for the EPICA core. The time resolution (i.e. the shortest time period which can be accurately distinguished) depends on the amount of annual snowfall, and reduces with depth as the ice compacts under the weight of layers accumulating on top of it. Upper layers of ice in a core correspond to a single year or sometimes a single season. Deeper into the ice the layers thin and annual layers become indistinguishable.
An ice core from the right site can be used to reconstruct an uninterrupted and detailed climate record extending over hundreds of thousands of years, providing information on a wide variety of aspects of climate at each point in time. It is the simultaneity of these properties recorded in the ice that makes ice cores such a powerful tool in paleoclimate research."
Not sure how you come up with the "hundred year old glacier" comment.
EP, 94, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 101N, 851W, 20, 1009, LO
I was asking because I can point it out for you.
So you made it up? That's what I thought. Okay, thanks!
98L off the coast of Florida a possible threat 7/16/11
Its just a wave flaring convection as it interacts with the TUTT. No development expected.
I don't really either, its Levi who has a good grasp on them. They're pretty rare as of late to see for some reason, most systems the last two seasons have been Cape Verde or Monsoonal originated.
I've wondered this too. Either there's some sort of update notification thing I'm missing or people sit around all day on that same page waiting for updates.
gentle.... nice work
True that.
Mostly I just get lucky. When warranted, I know they generally (though not always) tend to appear at around 1:40 ET and 7:40 ET, so I just occasionally update the FTP site, and sometimes hit it.
Things are starting to heat up, no doubt about it.
On the EPAC
12Z GFS is showing one of these becoming a very significant cyclone.
12Z GFS backs this low down to the ECFL coast then off to the NE. However, subsequent model runs should be more reliable as most don't even show a closed low, 12Z GFS never shows a low closing off. Well, we all know that there has been a closed low there for some time now.
Link
shows a low creeping to south fl...better keep an eye
you tell 'em Granny!..lol
it shows a more organized system from the TW near 56w
just wondering because you're just about always the first one to post those things
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