Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan
June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.
U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.
Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.
I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.
Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz
Reader Comments
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And them to me. LOL Miamiehurrican09 always beats me to it.
Yeah, no rain. So depressing. I'm not crazy OR stupid, just depressed.
Read Post 1098 please.
I think the tinfoil is being used somewhere else at this time.
Next shipment comes in around the first of August...
A TD
B TS
C open wave
D Disscipate
I pick E the hypercane option.
I remember that little sucker, it dropped a foot of rain in about 6-7 hours here in Richmond, lots of flooding especially on the Bottom aka "Shockoe Bottom" It also produced numerous damage in the Richmond metro area.
Initially when it developed it moved SE, briefly. It then quickly recurved back to the NW towards SC, near where the area where Hugo made landfall.
Yep the Weather Channel is the worst excuse for Television tropical weather forecasting, ever since NBC bought them out and Dr. Lions left they've became the most conservative in tropical weather out of any weather station known on the planet.
does anyone know that i know Dr. Lions?
oh well...
C, to be honest
Does that mean we get these once a year?
heh heh
Then when a major is coming it's the end of the world
Thanks for the thoughts Aqua - life has been really rough for me lately since my husband passed away in March... am just barely beginning to function again. And hoping we will not have any hurricanes this season, don't think I could handle it.
Its Lyons actually, and yes TWC is a joke now, so much for "Your Hurricane Authority" when you are playing Peter Lik, or When Weather changed History. Way to keep up with the weather TWC. NBC is a piece of crap, that fired a lot of good meteorologists.
North needs to fill out some more and ill call it strong cat4 maybe supertyphoon
Gaston is a good example that a slow moving weak system can still be dangerous.
My point has been made, i rest my case... TWC should just shutdown their TW division, all they do is copy off the NHC they don't even do their own work, they dont make any thing that could possibly form a big deal, but then when it becomes something or there is a major hurricane, they go into full storm alert, and go nuts over it... dont get it, thats why i stopped watching them two years ago, another thing, what happened to Stephanie Abrahms(dunno how to spell her last name) and Mike Bettes?
dont forget east
Great, you're back.
I am really sorry to hear of your husband's passing.
Right Dr. Lyons, its been so long since ive seen his name written on something i forgot how to spell it... lol
Yah but that is starting to fill up already!
Thanks Aqua - it's good to have a friend nearby... I will WUmail you the details so as not to clog up the blog. Problem with hurricanes is that I have 2 indoor cats and 3 outdoor ones to worry about... and a daughter in college at UNF...
Sorry to hear that. Where do you live, if I may ask (I'm wondering because you mentioned hurricanes)?
E Will be followed by 99L
I'm so sorry, that must really be unfortunate. My blessings to you.
Thanks for the thoughts Kori - I am in Ponte Vedra Beach - on a barrier island outside of Jacksonville, FL. Our house is a couple of blocks off the beach.
still coming down..
But dont get me wrong.. we do need the rain here tho.. Not alot at once..
Not bad at all, 98L looks healthy.
Thank you very much CyberTeddy - it has been really hard for me to deal with.
98L looks vary good on rader may be a little too good
Very, very small however if that's all of 98L.
Looks to be moving SSE.
Alright, thank you. Take care.
whats the name of the boundaries out side of the yellow lines in map 2
Conditions at 41009 as of
(7:50 pm EDT)
2350 GMT on 07/16/2011:
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 7.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.0 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1015.1 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.0 mb ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.6 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.8 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 24.8 °C
Heat Index (HEAT): 31.8 °C
Conditions at 41010 as of
(7:50 pm EDT)
2350 GMT on 07/16/2011:
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 11.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.6 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.5 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.0 mb ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 24.2 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.8 °C
Will be interested to see if that area keeps going.
That's what I was thinking, so small.
But if that is all of 98L then this one could organize fairly quickly, small systems like to give us surprises. :\
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