Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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west south carb got plans
Hopefully for the entire season. Yes, I live in FL but am not a FL wishcaster by any means. As far as I'm concerned if FL never saw another hurricane again it would be fine with me.
The East South Carb could use some clouds.....
Point your Machine down here, please.
Philippe looks happy.
sw nw carb will fire up could be a couple of big powerhouses there we will see soon
Hope you are as well.
Too hot and dry here for comfort.
Kind of worrying.
There is talk of an early dry season, but I hope that is not the case.
... but I'm looking at an area of cloud/rain to the east, that might bring some relief tomorrow.
Agreed!
But in reality there are only a couple of people on the blog that can discuss the Big Picture sensibly.
From time-to-time I try to introduce some ideas that I think would be interesting in a general way.
Not much info comes back.
Does not mean we should stop trying though.
And your question would be a good one to discuss.
Let's come back to it, as a Post Mortem!
I thought that SAL was generally slight, this year?
(you see? One comment, and already we have dissention! Sorry 'bout that!!)
Been hearing this for a month and so far nada. Storm developing there wouldn't make it anywhere North of Mexico with the weather pattern our friend Lee left behind.
Absolutely correct!
Looking at that too, (see post 14)
Live in Hope, die in Despair.
That's what the Old Folk used to say, anyway.
heheheheh
TS Don could tell you how bad that was! ;)
That's true as well.
But you know, I think we have reached the point where we put much too much faith in the WeatherGurus at the NHC and stuff.
Would be much better if we all got together and did some RainDances and Limbo and general Freaking out....
That used to work fine, you know.
Now, we expect a Computer to tell the clouds where to go and what to do?
It aint workin' !
2:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 30.4°N 62.9°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: N at 21 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Trinidad, 11n 61w.
Same story though!
And yes, the conditions are pretty good (STILL) all over the place.
But the dry air has been furious!
So, here is The Question...
Where is it coming from?????????
Hey pottery long time no see,just had a 1/2 inch here,don't worry by the looks of it the next 2-3 days we'll have plenty.
I might break something if I tried to limbo, but I'm all for the Rain Dances and Freaking out part! :D
Hope so.
The dry air was not forecast, as far as I know.
And the dry air tends to increase the pressure gradients too, which works to give the developing systems some problems, by increasing winds around/in front of them.
Hi, DDR.
I can see the clouds over you.....
Clear, hot and dry here.
Hearing thunder too....
Yep, looking forward to some rains from those clouds in the east.
Lower 60s, bright sunshine, comfy dewpoints in the 50s... ahhhh. Fall.
So nice after our extremes from the last three seasons with too much snow, then too many tornadoes, then too much heat.
Yep. This is good. :)
heheheh, 2 out of 3 is Great!
I'll pass on the Limbo too.
:)
Just checked the temp here at home.
34.8C (95F) on the upstairs gallery....
That's too hot.
... with a little help from her friends (and enemies, too!)
A little strange that there is no mention.
Looks like it will all drift North of us AGAIN, and leave us gasping in the Hot Dry weather.
Will see what tomorrow brings...
Good afternoon all.
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