Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.
Jeff Masters
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Tropical Storm Philippe
11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 25.4N 49.8W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Say Wha...! XD
you late on that way too late on that LOL been there for some time now
Exactly, I hadn't noticed. That was the point of the comment. :P
Thanks! I haven't been around for a few days and your entry helped me catch up.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NALGAE (T1119)
15:00 PM JST October 2 2011
================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nalgae (975 hPa) located at 16.7N 116.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 16.8N 113.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 17.3N 111.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.1N 108.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Back-to-back typhoons have left at least 55 people dead and rescuers scrambling to deliver food and water to hundreds of villagers marooned on rooftops for four days by floods in the northern Philippines.
Typhoon ‘Quiel’ (international name: Nalgae) blew into Isabela province Saturday then barrelled across the main Luzon Island’s mountainous north and agricultural plains that were still sodden from fierce rain and wind unleashed by a howler just days earlier.
Philippine officials said Quiel left at least three people dead Saturday while typhoon Pedring (international name: Nesat) killed 52 others in the same region before blowing out Friday.
Benito Ramos of the Office of Civil Defense said hundreds of villagers remained trapped on rooftops Sunday in a flooded town north of Manila.
Rescuers struggled Sunday to evacuate tens of thousands of people trapped in their homes in the Philippines as more floods were forecast in the aftermath of typhoon Quiel (international codename: Nalgae)
Fanning out across inundated towns just a few hours north of the capital Manila using small boats and trucks, officials issued desperate pleas for those still refusing to leave their homes to be relocated to safety.
Quiel blew out of the Philippines after a six-hour rampage across the countrys main Luzon island Saturday, bringing fresh troubles for more than a million people affected by Typhoon Nesat which had struck five days earlier.
Quiel soaked the Cordillera mountain range, and water cascading from the slopes was expected to further swell tributaries and rivers in the central Luzon plains before draining into Manila Bay later Sunday.
We are asking everyone still refusing to leave their homes to let authorities evacuate them, Office of Civil Defense administrator Benito Ramos told AFP as he inspected the farming town of Calumpit, two hours drive north of Manila, which has been flooded for days.
Water from the Cordilleras could reach the plains today (Sunday) and there is a possibility that there wont be any more rooftops left to see if that catches up with water from Nesat thats just now subsiding, he said.
As the sun broke through the clouds early Sunday, thousands waded through waist-deep waters in search of food and drinking water but found out that even the town hall was inundated.
Residents grappled with ropes rigged on lamp posts so as not to be swept away by the strong current, while others carried improvised flotation devices such as empty water bottles.
Those with access to small canoes ferried supplies to stranded relatives, or moved out pets and livestock.
Volunteers on rubber boats went from one flooded home to another to hand over relief items, including dry clothes and instant noodles.
A white coffin was also seen rigged on a canoe, but the grieving relatives had nowhere to take the dead with the cemetery also waterlogged.
I have been trapped here for the last four days, said Ropalyn Sebastian, a 26-year-old toll booth clerk who was visiting a friend in Calumpit when Nesat struck last week.
My family is in the next town, and the last I heard from them was they were stranded in the second floor of our home.
Sebastian said she braved the water Sunday hoping it would subside, only to hear warnings of more floods expected later in the day.
Help is slow to arrive, and even the municipal hall is flooded, she said.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council in Manila recorded only one death from Quiel, but said Nesat left at least 52 people dead after it unleashed strong winds and devastating floods.
More than 2.4 million people were affected by Nesat, nearly half a million of them still staying in evacuation centres, while the rest opted to wait out the floods in their homes.
The Philippines endures an average of about 20 typhoons of the year, some of them causing widespread destruction and deaths.
Nesat and Nalgae were two of the most powerful typhoons this year, bringing torrential rains to vast areas in Luzon, including in Manila, where storm surges broke through the sea wall last week.
North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) appears like a bridge from this aerial view of Bulacan province as floodwater covers large tracts of land around the freeway on Oct. 1, 2011
This is what it's like between my place and Pampanga.
Philippe's circulation exposed.
Good Morning, How's this for cooling down in Fl. Lovin it
ECMWF develops a Caribbean system towards the end of the week N. of Cuba, brings it up just east of FL.
this is freezing four days ago it was ninety now its 45 im so cold in here
H.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 1Oct_6amGMT and ending 2Oct_6amGMT
The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 47.596n58.895w-YJT is the endpoint of the 2Oct_12amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 45.037n61.85w-YPS is the same for the 1Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 27.7mph(44.5k/h) on a heading of 5.9degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over SaintEsprit,NovaScotia ~21hours from now
Copy&paste 45.037n61.85w-yps, 47.596n58.895w-yjt, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n63.1w, 28.5n63.1w-30.4n62.8w, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, 32.6n62.4w-35.0n62.1w, bda, 32.6n62.4w-45.635n60.493w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 2Oct_12amGMT
* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Morning, you will get use to the chilly weather. Looks nice here in tampa all week. highs in the low-mid 80's lows in the 50's to 60's range.
00Z CMC resembles a bit NGP runs so something might start cooking up next week.
Loooks like la nina is rearing its ugly head here in Trinidad,2.6 inches here since last evening.
I have my serious doubt about the GOM. If something were to develop, I'd look for a NE direction through Central/Eastern Cuba and through the Bahama's. A pretty common track especially with this very strong early season cold front.
I wouldn't count it out. Off Shore water temps in the central and southern GOM are in the 80s. And we know the water temps in the Caribbean are in the 80s.
Don't be suprised if there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean in couple weeks threatening Cuba and possibly Florida.
34.8n62.1w, 37.4n61.4w are now the most recent positions
Starting 1Oct_12pmGMT and ending 2Oct_12pmGMT
The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.635n60.493w-YPS is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 2Oct_6amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbell at 47.596n58.895w-YJT is the same for the 2Oct_12amGMT*mapping.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 30.5mph(49.1k/h) on a heading of 12.1degrees(NNE)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over Otter'sPoint,Newfoundland ~22hours from now
Copy&paste 47.596n58.895w-yjt, 45.635n60.493w-yps, 28.5n63.1w-30.4n62.8w, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, 32.6n62.4w-34.8n62.1w, 34.8n62.1w-37.4n61.4w, bda, 34.8n62.1w-47.691n58.036w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 2Oct_6amGMT
GFS is not pushing back anymore the timeframe of a Caribbean development.At 00z it begins to develop at 192 hours.Let's see if the Euro follows GFS in next runs.
I hope so because this is just starting.
Not too far south of you in Naples, it's business as usual for early October: the 10-day forecast calls for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, with lows hovering around 70. In my many years in South Florida, I've never seen the first real cold front--that is, with lows in the 40s--come through until the third week of October, give or take a few days, and I don't see anything on the long-range that will change that.
(The 10-day for Tampa proper doesn't look all that different: a high of 83 today, but in the mid- to upper-80s the rest of the time, and lows around 70 after a few nights in the 60s.)
While much of the east is cool today, the middle part is downright hot: the highs all the way up through Montana and North Dakota today will be around 90. But that blob of warmth shifts eastward through the week bringing moderate temperatures all through the Mississippi Valley. And then a real cold blast starts moving across the country from the Pacific, with temps in the 20s and 30s all throughout the Rockies by next weekend, and, likely, the first widespread chance of measurable snow in the mountain regions. A few samples:
Lander, WY
Today: high 81
Next Sunday: low 38 with snow showers.
Scottsbluff, NE:
Today: high 90
Next Sunday: low 37
Steamboat Springs, CO:
Today: high 73
Next Sunday: low 29 with snow showers
It's coming...
Last year got chilly in Oct. warm in Nov. the got down right cold dec thur mar. My lowest temp this year was 17 on jan.22. I live 40 miles ne of Tampa.
The GFS and ECMWF have latched on to the idea of two systems over the next 10 days or so...One is a strong subtropical storm off the southeastern coastline, and the other is the highly advertised Caribbean system.
Rina and Sean would be the names.
Coming down hard here right now, with Rumbles and Squalls.
NICE!
South Florida is typically quite warm and humid aound Holloween (that's a month from now). I wouldn't expet this year to be any different.
sometimes even later nea... some years it takes till november for a good front to come thru without stalling around sarasota. What's weird is that the front had no real moisture....but was strong. THe casino boat had HUGE swells last night off fort myers beach....lots of sick people!
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