Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.
Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.
Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.
Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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But the 06Z GFS for Tuesday 10/25:
Gainesville, FL (7:15 EST). I woke up at 4:00 AM this morning to thunder & heavy rain. It seems to have tapered off some in the last half hour as the heaviest rains seem to be on the West side of the low. The big question is whether or not this heads into the northern GOM.
Looking at the models if that does get going it will probably have a NW movement towards the Yucatan peninsula in the long run.
Things have backed off that real northern launch towards FL and the SEUS.
I’m wondering if we may see another organized disturbance form about 100 miles or so offshore of Florida’s east coast this afternoon. The high resolution rapid refresh model (HRRR model) is hinting that an area of disorganized convection stretching from the central Caribbean northward through the Bahamas may spin off a low pressure system off of the east coast of Florida; in fact, both the radar imagery forecast & the wind field forecast both show a curly-Q signature of a developing low pressure system with 70 mph wind gusts with this developing low pressure system. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see another Invest situation (Invest 94?) this afternoon into tonight.
You are near the eye of the...
Never mind. That discussion got heated here yesterday apparently.
Rough weather for you. Big blast of convection in your part of FL.
This is the first morning in a while I didn't run over there and read Rob's discussion.
The SAT loops show something trying to get going over there... I thought it was curious and didn't follow up on it.
Interesting. My suspicion is that from where it is it's headed north.
They broke their own definition of what a Subtropical Storm is...Being inconsistent this season and its irritating me.
It looks like Crown WX is seeing the possibility of the tropical wave to the east of your surface low being the catalyst for the Yucatan system.
Say a prayer for the people in her path.Possible Cat 3 storm at landfall with 120+ winds and 4-12 inches of rain in the mountains near landfall location.
I feel pretty confident that the activity will increase over the coming days.
There may be a lot of overcast and questionable stuff in your part of the world... and mine here in S. FL.
6.1 / 946.2mb/117.4kt
2011OCT10 110000 6.4 940.0/ 2.4 /124.6 6.3 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -10.56 -68.82 EYE 12 IR 16.20 106.95 COMBO
10/0600 UTC 16.3N 107.2W T6.0/6.0 JOVA -- East Pacific
Expect a Category 4 next complete advisory (8AM PDT/11AM EDT)...
The ole "Beauty in the eye of the beholder debate".
They followed the NWS Directive: Tropical Cyclone Weather Services Program, NWSPD 10-6
Section 2.1
2.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories (TCP). NHC will issue subtropical cyclone advisories. However, due to the lack of well-defined criteria for distinguishing subtropical from non-tropical lows, marginally-subtropical systems may be handled as non-tropical gale or storm centers in High Seas forecast products.
This endless debate will contine since tropical/subtropical designation is a subjective process.
I thought the NHC were only interested in padding the stats!?
;)
Just about to sit down and watch Tornado Swarm 2011 that I recorded from earlier tonight on Nat Geo. I know I am going to be blown away by the personal stories. I'll come back later with a review. Cheers Aussie
Some folks around here had to wear floaties in their row boat! had 7 1/2" total rain and 75-80 mph wind gusts here in Central East FL.
107.635.
Maybe I'm off here, but I've never latched onto the debate over does it get a name, not get a name, is it a TD, TS, STS, or a hurricane.
The systems that we classify now happened long before we were classifying them.
The weather is the weather. If people are adequately warned of the conditions and can prepare and protect themselves, then that's good enough for me. That's part of the mission statements of both the NHC and the NWS.
The rest is sometimes just scenery.
UNNAMED Subtropical Storm
That photo probably isn't real good evidence that they should have named this. That looks like a giant blob of rain and nothing else.
I sure could have used either or today. My yard is a mass of branches floating on standing water, mixing with the pool water (which is overflowing). I'm not complaining though...FL can use every drop of it! Getting to work on time with trees down and transformers blowing was tricky though.
Anyway, a couple of things to remember:
--While the folks at the NHC aren't infallible--that is, they're only human--they do tend to know more about tropical weather than anyone here. Lots more. I've visited the NHC office several times (I worked for a while mere blocks from the place), and have to say that those guys are as well-educated, highly-experienced, passionate, and professional a group of people as I've ever seen. They may not get it right every time, but they surely strive to.
--In my own unprofessional opinion, the storm did seem to exhibit a number of tropical characteristics, at least for awhile. I'm pretty sure that if I saw them and you saw them, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, spend all day every day looking at swirls--probably saw them to. And if, in the post-season analysis, they determine that the low's cloud patterns were a close enough fit to the subtropical storm intensity estimates, and if the TAFB surface analysis verifies the non-frontal nature of the surface low, and if they determine that there were no significant temperature changes from the passage of the low, and if the AMSU temp analysis shows that the low had a warm core, and if the low's wind radii were large enough, they will almost certainly classify it later as a subtropical storm.
--On the other hand, if they don't find those tropical characteristics, they'll leave it as is.
--As has been said before, the NHC just can't win. For the dozens of people irate this morning that they didn't classify it, there are just as many more who would be angry had the NHC gone ahead and classified; we'd doubtless hear non-stop comments about how they'd named it "just to inflate the numbers" (which insinuates that they're paid for every swirl they name). But I reckon one would have to be prepared for that working there.
--Bottom line: what does it really matter whether the NHC named it? Other than die-hard weather enthusiasts like us, is the world any different either way?
And you certainly know a thing or two about tiresome debates.
This is a small price to pay for getting something truly needed...RAIN!!!... without the sustained hurricane winds.
have a nice day everyone.
You even have local METS and Accuweather METS scratching their heads at the NHC for this one..
What's the number?
It depends on the debate. You're right, it makes little difference whether it has a name or classified providing there are adequate notifications of impending weather. However, it is not just about the human impact, it's also about recording weather accurately for trends and correlations etc.
It can't just be reduced to shikata ga nai.
Just you often find the same people complaining in their view it should be a storm or whether it shouldn't. The NHC can and should be questioned when it is merited. That said, if it was more weighted in methodical science then fine, but often there's more opinionated stances doused in hysterics and conspiracy.
It is amusing, though.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON
5:00 PM PhST October 10 2011
===================================
Tropical Depression "RAMON" has maintained its strenght as it continues to move in a Westward direction.
At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ramon located at 7.5°N 129.7°E or 560 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Signal Warnings
=================
Signal Warning #1
----------------
Mindanao Region
==============
1. Surigao Del Norte
2. Siargao Island
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Dinagat Group of Islands
Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Unfortunately, you will be disappointed often. The only thing that is consistent, is their inconsistency. Although I do "bow down" to their expertise and reasoning. (and to some others on here)
In this case, other than a name and a number of storms formed this season it doesn't make a difference. Although you would be happier economically if you had sustained damage to your house. Your homeowners deductible would be a lot less.
Maybe in the season review it will get classified. Kind of like the no-name storm of 1999 that hit South Florida. I couldn't believe that one wasn't named at the time, and in season review it was released that it should have.
Just my complex scoring scale for comments, which is to say I make it up.
Your observations fall in line with my thinking... but I think you did a better job of articulating it.
"OMG it's a tropical storm!"
It's part of the hysterics.
One of my favorites that I've heard before on here is "if this becomes a named system it's gonna explode." or something to that effect.
The weather doesn't care what we call it.
And yes, from a scientific perspective and to develop trends in the climatology it's very important, and can be reviewed over time, but in the moment when the event is happening, the safety of those impacted is paramount.
I suspect this system will get revisited in the near future, it has tremendous value scientifically... in that it was unusual and gave the mets some identification issues, which shows it was something weird.
But in terms of keeping the public informed, they did pretty well with the conditions.
I guess for the average Joe at least, for example, he'd rather know he's gonna get 100mph winds and a foot of rain than figure out what category the storm is.
The science can always be reviewed, and with this one I'm sure it will.
This storm is so scary. So many people in that area don't have strongly built houses and live in harms way. Lot's of canyons to cause flash flooding. Saying my prayers for them.
Beautiful!
Great comment.
Yet, there's been so many uneventful Tropical Systems with Cantore standing on the beach (live) with the sun shinning along with a 10 mph breeze.
Just found this interesting.
Have you or anyone sent them a e-mail? I'm curious to hear what they have to say other than the convection wasn't organized enough!
Lets hope she does a 180 turn back out to sea!!
Good ways out... I think I saw it for the 25th of the month when i posted it earlier.
East coast rider... eye candy for now, but shows the possible.
Interesting stretch we're in.
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