Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. With the warmest March, third warmest April, and second warmest May, the March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for spring 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Thirty-one states were record warm for the 3-month period, and an additional eleven states had top-ten warmth. Spring 2012 beat the previous record for hottest spring on record, set in 1910, by an remarkable 2°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
U.S. heat over the past 12 months: a one in half-a-million event
The U.S. record for hottest 12-month period fell for the second straight month in May. The June 2011 - May 2012 temperatures smashed the previous record by a startling 0.4°F, which is a huge margin to break a record by for a 1-year period. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Thirty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional ten states were top ten warm. Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.
Figure 2. Three of the top ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 3. The average temperature during January - May 2012 was the warmest on record: 5°F above the 20th century average for the period, and 1.3°F above the previous record set in 2000. January - May temperatures have been rising at about 1.8°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Second warmest May, warmest year-to-date period on record
May 2012 was the second warmest May in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Twenty-six states had a top-ten warmest May, and no states had a top-ten coolest May. The January - May 2012 period was the warmest January - May period since record keeping began in 1895, with temperatures 5°F above the 20th century average for the period. This broke the previous record set in 2000 by an unusually large margin--1.3°F.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March - April - May) shows that 2012 had the most extreme spring on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Most extreme spring and January - May period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the spring March - April - May period. This is more than twice the average value, and spring 2012 was the most extreme season of any kind in U.S. history. A list of the top five most extreme seasons since 1910, as computed using the CEI, show that two of the three most extreme seasons in U.S. history occurred in the past 12 months:
Spring 2012: 44%
Winter 1979: 42%
Summer 2011: 39%
Fall 1985: 39%
Spring 1934: 38%
Remarkably, 81% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during spring 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during spring was 18%, which was the 19th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were the 8th largest on record. The year-to-date January - May period was also the most extreme such period in U.S. history, with a CEI of 43%. Climate change theory predicts that, in general, the climate should warm, wet areas should get wetter, and dry areas should get drier. The spring 2012 Climate Extremes Index reflects this pattern.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. None of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic through June 15.
Jeff Masters
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EP, 93, 2012061000, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1062W, 25, 1008, LO
OF NOTE FOR INTERESTS IN AND ALONG GALVESTON BAY...A WILDFIRE IN
EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMOKE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE BAY. AS THE SUN SETS THIS SMOKE WILL BEGIN TO
SETTLE AND COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS SPARKED A WILDFIRE IN SOUTHEASTERN
CHAMBERS COUNTY. LATEST UPDATES FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS INDICATE
THIS FIRE MAY CONTINUE TO BURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRE WAS DRIVEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY...LOWERING
THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EARLIER IN THE MORNING IN GALVESTON BAY
AND GALVESTON ISLAND.
AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS SMOKE TO SETTLE CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE. THE STEERING WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO MORE TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
JUST ISSUED A SPS INCLUDING MORE DETAILS FOR THE GALVESTON BAY
AREA.
Dissipated November 5, 1998
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
180 mph (285 km/h)
Lowest pressure 905 mbar (hPa); 26.72 inHg
Fatalities-- 19, 325
Damage $6.2 billion (1998 USD)
Areas affected Central America (particularly Hondurasand Nicaragua), Yucat%uFFFDn Peninsula, South Florida
Part of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season
Hurricane Mitch was the most powerful hurricane and the most destructive of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h). The storm was the thirteenth tropical storm, ninth hurricane, and third major hurricane of the season. Along with Hurricane Georges, Mitch was the most notable hurricane in the season. At the time, Hurricane Mitch was the strongest Atlantic hurricane observed in the month of October, though it has since been surpassed by Hurricane Wilma of the 2005 season. The hurricane matched the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record (it has since dropped to seventh).
Mitch formed in the western Caribbean Sea on October 22, and after drifting through extremely favorable conditions, it rapidly strengthened to peak at Category 5 status, the highest possible rating on the Saffir%u2013Simpson Hurricane Scale. After drifting southwestward and weakening, the hurricane hit Honduras as a minimal hurricane. It drifted through Central America, reformed in the Bay of Campeche, and ultimately struck Florida as a strong tropical storm.
Due to its slow motion from October 29 to November 3, Hurricane Mitch dropped historic amounts of rainfall in Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, with unofficial reports of up to 75 inches (1,900 mm). Deaths due to catastrophic flooding made it the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane in history; nearly 11,000 people were killed with over 11,000 left missing by the end of 1998. Additionally, roughly 2.7 million were left homeless as a result of the hurricane. The flooding caused extreme damage, estimated at over $6 billion (1998 USD, $8.56 billion 2012 USD).
Date 15 December 1998
Sorry y'all didn't get any rains.
Invest 93E forms in the East Pacific
...Where did everybody run off to?
WHXX01 KMIA 100036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932012) 20120610 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120610 0000 120610 1200 120611 0000 120611 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 106.2W 9.9N 107.2W 10.5N 108.7W 11.2N 110.4W
BAMD 9.5N 106.2W 9.8N 108.4W 10.4N 110.8W 10.7N 113.3W
BAMM 9.5N 106.2W 9.7N 107.9W 10.1N 109.8W 10.6N 112.1W
LBAR 9.5N 106.2W 9.8N 108.4W 10.2N 110.9W 10.9N 114.0W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 53KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120612 0000 120613 0000 120614 0000 120615 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 112.4W 13.3N 116.9W 13.7N 122.0W 12.1N 127.5W
BAMD 11.1N 115.7W 10.5N 120.2W 8.3N 123.8W 6.4N 125.6W
BAMM 11.0N 114.4W 11.1N 118.4W 10.1N 121.7W 8.7N 124.3W
LBAR 11.6N 117.5W 12.4N 123.9W 11.3N 128.3W 9.5N 126.2W
SHIP 65KTS 74KTS 79KTS 81KTS
DSHP 65KTS 74KTS 79KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 106.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 104.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 102.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
This also applies to all convection of tropical nature whether shallow or tall. Even with much taller convective cells, you have a massive amount of water vapor near the lower quadrant of the cell, the farther up the warmer air extends and the higher the atmospheric moisture the more this process is intensified. As you might already know with tropical cyclones, they are quite shallow, however this is despite that convective cells frequently reach 45 to 55,000 ft near the core. Basically most of the "weather" in a tropical convective cell is near the lower quadrant, or should I say increases as you head toward the base. This is why reflectivity with tropical cyclones is ofen much less impressive than what it's like to actually experience. Often what appears to be moderate rain can actually be heavy convection with torrential downpours. I learned growing up around here that you better find an ark quick when you start seeing 50 TO 60 dbz in tropical cyclone rain bands. The opposite occurs with more "cold cored" convection. Often times the radar thinks it is heavier than it is due to more ice and lower mass of water vapor and liquid water falling to the ground.
I personally am extra intrigued with tropical weather, more so than "regular" weather. I'm thinking about continuing into graduate school as a focus on tropical meteorology at FSU after I finish my bachelors degree.
A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane
I say D 75mph.
I'm going to say D. for me, but a major hurricane is definitely a possibility if it can take advantage of the absolute peak favorable conditions between 48-72 hours out. Heat content will be barely favorable for it to strengthen unusually rapid, but I could definitely see a Category 2 hurricane out of this (not that I showed that in my blog :P)
I read your blog! I was even nice enough to plus it :P
That is one pretty invest.
And I'm liking its track. Go 93E! XD
E. I hope it becomes a Cat 5 monster and sets records. And I only do so because it isn't going to affect any land areas.
Thanks for that explanation. Much of that stuff I had suspected but wasn't sure about since I am at the moment not as well versed with such storms as I could be.
As for your fascination with tropical weather, well that makes two of us. I am also considering graduate school after my undergrad and specializing in tropical, and FSU is very high on my list for that. Maybe we'll meet each other someday.
I pick D.
That whole area is in a RRQ of a jet, which aids ventilation of storms that form. with PW that high... bad news if you don't want the rain.
That doesn't sound right. I do not know where the NWS ever forecasted 12-15" of rainfall, even before this happened. I'm thinking that they took something out of context, like the forecast for the storm total for a particular area.
It's not right. The NWS is only forecasting 4-8 more inches of rainfall in Escambia.
Gotta love the media though. Hypes everything.
Maybe so! I will probably be starting meteorology at FSU this January.
Yeah, they won't get 20 to 30 inches, what they have had is already bad enough and the atmosphere will be somewhat worked over. It took all day to get thunderstorms going over Florida today for example, because days of overcast and periods of heavy rainfall sure did stabilize things...
I like the local weather here, they don't hype things.
Yes. We usually get one every 2-3 years and we've not had one since 2007.
Evening all.
Huh? By whom?
It might not get talked about as much as you expect, but I seriously doubt Mitch will ever be forgotten. I remember at the time thinking Georges was going to be the storm of the season - it was pretty bad - and then Mitch blew up. The storm that surpassed Mitch's death toll happened hundreds of years ago, during a time when hurricanes were practically mythological. IIRC, for a very long time a picture of Mitch was the iconic cyclone on the pages of several NOAA TC imagery archives.
People may not say much about Mitch, but I don't think it's because they have forgotten. Maybe, for some of us, it's because we remember better than we would like.
we're waaaaaaaay over due.Could this be the year?.It is 2012 after all...
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