JrWeathermanFL's Blog

Posted by: JrWeathermanFL, 21:53 GMT dnia 09-sierpień-2012 +2
Since my browser wont allow me to post pictures, I'll give you my 2 cents in words.

TS Ernesto
Ernesto made landfall in Mexico today about as far south as you can go in the BOC. Ernesto previously made landfall on the Yucatan just north of Belize a few days ago as an 85 mph Cat. 1 hurricane. However, Ernesto was likely a Cat. 2 or at least 90 mph at landfall.
Ernesto is currently degenerating inland but could redevelop in the Eastern Pacific.

Ex-Florence
The remanants of Florence are located north of Puerto Rico this afternoon and could possibly redevelop into a TD or TS again as it moves through less wind shear and a better environment. If she redevelops she would most likely not be a strong system. Florence still has to gain a better defined low level center of circulation. However she is still spinning. I believe she has a 20% chance of redeveloping over the next 2 days or so but any organization at all should be slow.

TD 7
A Tropical Depression formed at 13.7N and 43.8W this afternoon out of Invest 92L. 92L has been moving west across the atlantic and will continue to do so as it strengthens gradually into the Carribbean. TD7 could go west below PR, Hispanola, and Cuba or slightly WNW over or north of the islands. Time will tell. But if TD 7(or TS Gordon) reaches the Western Carribbean, it could very well become Hurricane Gordon. However if it hits all the Islands dead on, the mountains os Hispanola could kill it. Ex-Flo could pave the way for TD7 if it moves north of the Islands

African Wave
A strong Tropical Wave is exiting Africa with strong rotation and a modest amount of convection. This storm could develop very soon but it does have some dry air along the way. The GFS forecasts though, that the storm could be very strong and recurve off the East Coast. And after Ernesto, Ive learned to never underestimate the power of the GFS.

-JrWeathermanFL
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Posted by: JrWeathermanFL, 15:58 GMT dnia 22-czerwiec-2012 +1
Polls for today:1. Will 96L form?A. YesB. No2. If yes, how long until it does?A. Today B. TomorrowC. SundayD. Other3. Where will it hit?A. No where. It just stays in the GOM and dissipates.B. TX/LAC. FLD. AL/MS4. If 96L doesnt form, could we still see Debby before July?A. YesB. NoI'd say A,B,C,BI'll be back Sunday or Monday-JrWeathermanFL
Updated: 16:00 GMT dnia 22-czerwiec-2012   Permalink | A A A
Posted by: JrWeathermanFL, 15:44 GMT dnia 20-czerwiec-2012 +2
Todays Polls:1. What will Chris's peak strength be?A. 50 mphB. 60 mphC. 65- 70 mphD. Hurricane2. Will Debby form out of the Caribbean storm?A. YesB. No3. If Debby does form, wil it hit the Gulf Coast?A. YesB. NoC. Too soon to tellI'd say Chris has a shot at making B.There is a pretty good chance of seeing Debby in the Caribbean, and if she forms there, I think she could possibly hit close to my location.I'll post Friday or Saturday.-JrWeathermanFL
Updated: 15:52 GMT dnia 20-czerwiec-2012   Permalink | A A A
Posted by: JrWeathermanFL, 16:41 GMT dnia 18-czerwiec-2012 +1
Todays polls:1. Will 95L form into Chris?A. YesB. No2. Will the blob in the Caribbean become a TS?A. YesB. No3. Will anything form in the BOC this month?A. YesB. No4. It's looking more like we will see Debby this month. Will we?A. YesB. NoC.*shrug*5.Will the EPAC get a storm out of 95E?A. YesB. NoI'd say A,A,B,A,A95L is organizing but It's losing time. If 95L forms into Chris, and the blob in the Caribbean forms into Debby, we WILL see Deby before July.95E is slowly...
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Posted by: JrWeathermanFL, 20:42 GMT dnia 16-czerwiec-2012 +2
I'm starting my own posts, but I'll be just presenting questions asking for your opinion and I'll give you mine. 1. When will Chris form?A. This weekB. Next weekC. Some other time2. If Chris forms this week, where will it form?A. BOCB. CaribbeanC. Central AtlanticD. Some other place3. Will we see Debby this month?A. YesB. NoC. Too early to tell4. If Chris forms in the BOC, what will his maximum strength be?A. TSB. Cat. 1C. Cat. 2 or higher5. Will anything form in th...
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